Re: The state of the web developing biz.

I vote opportunity, since you are observant enough to see it.

I read somewhere (which obviously makes it true) that most small businesses
(entrepreneurs) close their doors within 1 year of opening them, and most of
the ones that are left don't hit the 5 year mark.

Given a drastic situation like that (Since I mostly read reputable stuff,
let's postulate that the above statement is somewhere in the ballpark), it
would seem likely that small businesses as you describe live in a very
hostile environment under even normal conditions.  Throw in the recent
economic troubles, stemming back to the dot-crash, and I would wager that
many owners simply got tired.  They got worn out, then got worn out some
more thinking about how they didn't get rich overnight, like they'd planned.

However, the demand hasn't disappeared, but simply changed.  In the old days
(pre-crash), venture capitalists were tossing out money with abandon,
business plans were optional, and so was business sense.  Like the old
California Gold Rush in US Western history, people were leaping to hit the
frontier without thinking in a mad rush to grab the gold that was sure to be
simply laying around on the ground.

Since I never believed that life would leave gold hanging around just for me
to pick up, I was always skeptical of that approach.  Many weren't, though,
and bet their dreams on it.  We had web designers who were essentially
hobbyists with a copy of FrontPage 98 making more money that experienced C
programmers with a BS.  Harebrained ideas were worth investing 100k in just
because they had the word "Internet" in their description. Seasoned adults
who should have known better were tossing out cash in a major feeding frenzy
with visions of triple-digit returns blinding their common sense.

Of course, reality eventually set in.  Businesses built on vapor...well,
vaporized, as did the seemingly endless need for over-priced Internet
professionals. Yet, the underlying business potential of the Internet, the
foundation that the house of cards was built on, didn't go anywhere.

The Web is one of the greatest events in human history, even if it isn't a
magic gold rush, and there are still plenty of sound ideas being put online
every day.  The only difference is that the money people now want to know
exactly how they are going to recoup their investment, and everyone is
shopping around for labor prices.  It's a bit hard to qualify nowadays, both
for the idea itself and as a web developer hoping to implement that idea,
and bar keeps getting raised with new standards, new technologies and
competition. That alone is going to eliminate every small business owner who
thought the path was simply a matter of learning a little HTML and settling
in to a workaday routine!

So, there's the opportunity: to be one of the survivors, you have to adapt
and improve...daily.  Rather than throwing in the towel because the easy
pickings dried up, you can settle in for the long haul by planning your
business around a more sensible market. You can see what poor foresight and
complacency did to your competitors, and you can take a different path.

Of course, human nature being what it is, many will be so disappointed with
the end of the mad gold rush they just won't see the value of actually
digging in and working for success.  In many cases, it's those people, and
the ones who worked for them, that are sending out resumes, I think.

FWIW...from a struggling small business dude...:).

D


----- Original Message -----
From: "Kevin A. Jackson"

Here's a topic worthy of the list:

How is business going these days for the typical small web shop (1-10
staff)? We have noticed, primarily as a result of the quality and quantity
of resumes flooding in, that many of our competitors are closing their
doors, and we are strategizing whether this represents a threat or an
opportunity to us.

Thoughts?

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